SASKATCHEWAN MARKET CONDITIONS
SALES RETURNING TO NORMAL, INVENTORY LEVELS REMAIN A CHALLENGE
Sales activity continued to trend down in September with 1,267 units sold, a year-over-year decline of seven per cent. However, as seen in August, sales levels remain consistent with long-term trends as the market returns to more balanced conditions.
New listings were relatively stable on a year-over-year basis but continue to decrease when compared to levels seen earlier this year. Despite adjustments in both sales and new listings, inventory levels also fell in September. Inventories remain nearly 11 per cent lower than levels seen last year and well below long-term averages, which continues to prevent the market from moving into “buyers’ market” territory.
“Saskatchewan residents are not immune to the impacts of interest rate increases and ongoing inflationary pressures,” said Saskatchewan REALTORS_®_ Association CEO Chris Guérette. “That said, our housing market continues to fare better than many other regions in the country and we expect that to continue.”
With just over five months of supply, market conditions are not as tight as experienced earlier in the year, but supply levels remain well below long-term averages. The return to more balanced conditions over the past three months has taken some pressure off prices, as well. Despite monthly adjustments, the benchmark price was $329,700 in September, slightly lower than the month prior and four per cent higher than last September.
“While national concerns over a recession are mounting, our province remains well-equipped to weather the storm,” said Guérette. “Elevated commodity prices and a rebound in agricultural production have Saskatchewan on track to post strong economic growth this year. This growth will support jobs in the province and help offset some of the impact that higher lending rates are having on the housing market.”
September sales eased on a year-to-date basis across all regions of the province except for Swift Current, which posted a modest gain. Though sales continue to ease relatively to 2021, a record year, activity in all regions was above or similar to long-term trends for their markets. New listings also increased in many regions when compared to last year. However, any shifts in supply had little impact on inventories, which remain lower than levels seen last year across every region except Prince Albert.
Despite sales adjustments in most regions, lower inventory levels are preventing markets from becoming oversupplied. All regions are reporting September inventory levels that are well below 10-year average trends. As a result, many regions across the province continue to struggle with relatively low inventories compared to sales based on what is typical for the area.
As the shift to more balanced conditions continues, all areas of the province experienced a decline in prices. Despite recent adjustments, prices remain well above levels seen last year in all areas except Yorkton, which saw a decline of nearly two per cent. The largest price gains experienced in the first three quarters of 2022 have occurred in Melfort, Melville, and Warman.
City of Regina
Unlike certain areas of the province, Regina continues to post stable sales activity relative to last year. Gains in the apartment condominium sector nearly offset reductions in the detached and attached sectors. With 2,999 sales year-to-date, Regina is trending nearly two per cent higher than last year and on pace for another record year. While Regina has not faced the same supply constraints as Saskatoon, new listings continue to decline which is contributing to inventory levels that are over 18 per cent lower than reported last year.
With nearly four months’ supply, levels of supply remain lower than what is traditionally seen in September. Despite relatively tight conditions, there has been an adjustment in monthly prices as higher lending rates weigh on consumers. However, prices remain higher than last year due to gains in the detached sector.
City of Saskatoon
A further reduction in sales this month contributed to a year-to-date decline of 11 per cent in Saskatoon. While sales have eased when compared to the record levels experienced last year, activity remains well above pre-pandemic levels. The pullback in sales was also met with a pullback in new listings, preventing any improvement to inventory levels. However, slower sales relative to market inventory allowed the months of supply to rise above three months for the first time since February.
Despite the recent shift to more balanced conditions, supply levels remain far lower than long-term averages for this time of year. Like other regions of the province, the shift away from strong seller’s conditions resulted in a monthly price adjustment. However, with a benchmark price of $377,800 in September, prices are six per cent higher than September 2021.